Oh Gyeong-seob, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, speaks during a forum at the Press Center in Seoul, Wednesday. Courtesy of Korea Institute for National Unification

Experts warned, Wednesday, of a possible terrorist attack by North Korea, saying that the risk of a “jihad-like” strike is now greater after the regime’s decision to formally abandon peaceful unification with South Korea as its policy goal.

Speaking at a forum in Seoul, analysts from the Korea Institute for National Unification said the most likely form of attack would be something similar to its landmine attack in 2015 ― a provocation that South Korea faces challenges in immediately pinpointing responsibility. Because of the mines planted secretly by the North Korean military in the demilitarized zone, two South Korean soldiers were seriously injured.

“If such an attack occurs, North Korea would deny any involvement,” Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the state-funded think tank, told reporters. “There are many densely populated areas in South Korea which could be vulnerable to many forms of terrorist attack.”

Experts said this is a realistic scenario. Lee Min-bok, a North Korean defector-turned-activist, became a target of terrorism last year amid his campaign to send anti-regime leaflets across the inter-Korean border. The man's truck was set on fire and the police have yet to determine a suspect.

“The possibility of a terrorist attack by North Korean agents or its sympathizers should not be ruled out,” said Oh Gyeong-seob, another senior researcher. “If you look at history, the North has committed many forms of terrorism from the (1983) Rangoon bombing to the (1987) attack on the Korean Air flight to the (2010) Yeonpyeong Island bombardment and the (2010) attack on the ROKS Cheonan.”

In his announcement last month, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said the North no longer saw the South as “the partner of reconciliation and reunification” but as a “primary foe” that must be destroyed by its nuclear weapons if necessary.

He also ordered the revision of its constitution as well as its state guidelines in regard to relations with South Korea. In the weeks that followed, several government divisions tasked with promoting peace and unification with the South were shut down.

Experts said Kim’s highly aggressive remarks point to instability growing within the North.

“The greater the crisis the regime faces, the more aggressive it becomes,” said Park Hyeong-jung, another analyst at the press event.

The announcement, however, does not signal a shift in North Korea’s unification policy as suggested by some scholars, Park said, adding that unifying the Korean Peninsula under its communist rule — either by talks or force ― has always been its ultimate policy objective. The only remaining option now is force, which is perhaps a more honest reflection of its true intention, he said.

Analysts said the announcement rather suggests that the North Korean ruling elite realized and accepted that unification under its control is no longer feasible and that permanent division with the wealthier, freer South is a better alternative for them to maintain their power.

（作者：汽车配件）