Experts warn of possible Russian, North Korean nuclear tests in 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visit the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russia's far eastern Amur region, Russia, in this Sept. 13 file photo. Making predictions ahead of 2024, experts on North Korea and its diplomatic policy said on Wednesday that next year could be long remembered by the world for two nuclear weapons tests ― one by Russia and the other by North Korea. Reuters-Yonhap

Experts on North Korea and its diplomatic policy said, Wednesday, that 2024 could be long remembered for two nuclear weapons tests ― one by Russia and the other by North Korea.

Speaking at a conference about the prospects for inter-Korean relations in Seoul, analysts at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-funded think tank, said Russia will likely conduct its first nuclear test in more than 30 years after its presidential election planned for March. They also said this move could trigger North Korea to carry out its own nuclear test ― for the first time since 2017 ― amid the reinforcement of Moscow-Pyongyang military ties.

“To demonstrate its military capabilities to the world and its own people, Russia is expected to conduct a nuclear test next year,” said Hyun Seung-soo, an expert on Russia at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-funded think tank. “This could give fresh impetus to North Korea’s own nuclear test.”

Hyun said Russian President Vladimir Putin is projected to clinch an “overwhelming victory” in the upcoming election and has many reasons to send a threatening message to Moscow’s adversaries with such a bold move amid a battlefield stalemate in its war with Ukraine.

Recently, Putin signed a law effectively revoking Russia’s ratification of a key nuclear treaty, opening up the possibility that the Kremlin could resume atomic weapons testing.

Asked about the possibility of the two countries’ coordination prior to the expected nuclear tests, Kim Jin-ha, another senior analyst at the think tank, said that’s unlikely. He, however, said Pyongyang may factor the Russian timing into its own as the two states share the same goal of strengthening a global anti-U.S. coalition.

Kim believes North Korea’s next test will likely focus on exhibiting its nuclear-strike ability in a real war situation.

“One possible scenario is to test-fire Haeil (a North Korean underwater drone claimed to be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead) … Because the regime needs to prove its capability to actually operate nuclear weapons (to seek disarmament negotiations with the U.S. eventually) with real evidence,” he said.

Hyun Seung-soo, an expert on Russia at the Korea Institute for National Unification, speaks during the think tank's annual conference in Seoul, Wednesday. Courtesy of Korea Institute for National Unification

Experts also said Putin will likely hold another summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang next year, which would mark another crucial diplomatic moment for the two countries and present a challenge to the U.S.-led world order ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5.

These are grim signs for South Korea’s objectives of stabilizing the inter-Korean relations and denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.

Last month, North Korea successfully launched its first reconnaissance satellite as part of a project to develop new and more powerful weapons. Hong Min, a military analyst, said the regime will likely try to send at least one ― possibly two ― additional satellites into orbit next year while redoubling efforts to advance weapons such as solid-fuel long-range ballistic missiles.

Preoccupied with many domestic issues such as inflation in the run-up to the election, U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to pay less attention to matters related to Korea, especially at a time when he is already dealing with two wars important to Washington’s geopolitical strategy, said Min Tae-eun, an expert on international relations.

“All that means South Korea should be more proactive in resolving nuclear and other issues about North Korea. Unless we try to take the lead, there will be little or no progress,” she said.