[ANALYSIS] Has N. Korean leader's daughter been confirmed as heir apparent?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, seated right, and his daughter Ju-ae, seated left, visit North Korea's Air Force Command on Nov. 30. Yonhap

Kim Jong-un's elevated title for daughter raises questions on possible succession plansBy Kang Hyun-kyung

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un referred to his daughter as "Morning Star General," just days after the North's reconnaissance satellite, Malligyong-1, successfully entered orbit on Nov. 21.

The young girl, known as Ju-ae, was previously referred to by North Korea's state-controlled media as "dear child" or "respected child."

The dramatic change in the way she is addressed has fueled speculation on whether the new title could be interpreted as a confirmation of her status as the North's heir apparent.

Cheong Seong-chang, a research fellow at Sejong Institute, took the title change seriously, arguing that it is an important move related to leadership succession.

"I think it's definitely associated with the fourth-generation leadership succession," he told The Korea Times. "Kim made it clear that his daughter will succeed him by referring to her as 'Morning Star General.'"

In North Korea, the term "morning star" has been used figuratively to refer to a leader in waiting.

In the propaganda movie released in 1987, titled "Star of Choseon," Kim Il-sung, the founder of North Korea and Kim Jong-un's grandfather, was likened to a morning star. Set in the 1920s and 1930s when Korea was ruled by Imperial Japan, the movie depicts the elder Kim as a heroic independence fighter.

Kim Jong-un was referred to as "Morning Star General" before ascending to power following the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, in December 2011.

On Tuesday, Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported that Kim Jong-un called his daughter "Morning Star of Choseon" in a speech he gave at an event held on Nov. 23 to celebrate the country's successful spy satellite launch.

Citing a Pyongyang-based source, RFA quoted the North Korean leader as saying, "In an era of space, North Korea's future is brighter because of the Morning Star General of Choseon."

Kim reportedly addressing his daughter in this manner has drawn keen attention from North Korea watchers, because such a title has only been given to an heir apparent.

Rep. Tae Young-ho of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), a North Korean defector-turned-lawmaker, said the title change from "respected child" to "Morning Star General" has significant implications about the leadership succession.

"If North Korea uses the successful launch of the spy satellite as an opportunity to dignify Kim's daughter, this certainly means that she was confirmed internally as an heir apparent to succeed her father as North Korea's next leader," he said in a commentary released after the media report.

Reports of the title change have sparked speculation about whether North Korea is ready for a female leader.

Cheong said North Korean residents have no choice but to accept it under Kim's autocracy.

"North Korea is operating like a monarchy, because if a current ruler dies, his son succeeds him," he said. "North Korea became the first socialist state that experienced leadership succession from father to son when Kim Il-sung's son, Jong-il, rose to power after his father's death in 1994. Since then, North Koreans took the father-son leadership succession for granted."

In a country like North Korea, where a leader with absolute power dominates the decision-making process and cannot be challenged, Cheong said the gender of a successor would not become an issue.

"If the leader has sons but he believes none of them are capable enough to lead the state, he can pick a daughter as his successor. This is not something unusual," he said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his daughter are spotted during a banquet held on Nov. 23 to celebrate North Korea's launch of the spy satellite. Yonhap

But Hyun In-ae, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, remained cautious about the prospects of Ju-ae succeeding her father, saying she would wait and see how it turns out, rather than making any hasty predictions.

Hyun, a North Korean defector-turned-professor, said North Korea is a patriarchal society, male-dominated and far behind in gender equality.

"I believe North Korea's high-ranking officials would feel very uncomfortable about a female leader. Many would feel strange about Kim taking his daughter everywhere and showing up with her at major events," she said.

Hyun said she is not sure whether the media reports are based on facts.

"If Kim really referred to his daughter like that, this would mean that he is seriously considering her as his successor," she said. "To be honest, I am not quite sure whether the media reports are true. We need to verify them."

Hyun explained that Kim's daughter is not the first female North Korean royal family member to earn such a title, adding that Kim Jong-un's grandmother, Kim Jung-sook (1917-1949), was glorified with a similar title.

"She was addressed as 'Female General of Baekdu' when North Korea moved to dignify Kim Il-sung and his wife," she said. "All I can say now is that that if someone is introduced as 'Morning Star General' or something similar, this means she is almost certainly a successor or someone with a status akin to that," she said.

Kim Jong-un, who is in his late thirties, is still relatively young and is expected to stay in power for a good number of years to come, although he has a family history of heart disease. Both his grandfather and father died of heart attacks. Kim's height is estimated at around 170cm and his weight of about 120 kilograms. Therefore, he could be considered obese, which places him at a high risk of heart disease.

Those who are skeptical about a link between Kim's motives behind his frequent public appearances with his young daughter and leadership succession said that it is way too early for the leader to pick his successor.

Cheong said Kim may have learned from his tough succession process after his father's death.

He said Kim had to learn everything by himself and overcome doubts by critics about his leadership skills until he could prove himself.

"Kim would have found it tough to make himself seen as a leader, because he had to build and solidify his power base on his own and convince naysayers both at home and abroad who were skeptical about his untested leadership skills," he said.

"Through trial and error, he would have learned from his own experiences. He would have realized that his successor would need time to develop herself and hone her leadership skills as a leader in waiting," Cheong added.

He said Kim's frequent public appearances with his successor would also help the North Korean people believe that she is a prepared leader.