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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un talks with North Korean Navy Commander Adm. Kim Myong-sik, right, with the leader's daughter, Ju-ae, sitting in the middle during their congratulatory visit to the anniversary of the Navy on Aug. 28, in this image captured from the North's Korean Central Television, Aug. 29. Yonhap |
Interpretation mixed over North's extensive coverage of Kim's daughter
By Nam Hyun-woo
North Korea again directed the media spotlight on Kim Ju-ae, the daughter of leader Kim Jong-un, running a video footage of its navy commander saluting the presumed 10-year-old, rekindling a debate over whether the North is preparing to make her the rightful heir to the regime.
The North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Aug. 29 that Kim made a congratulatory visit to the Naval Command of the North Korean People's Army (KPA) with his daughter on Aug. 27. The television network also released a video image of KPA Navy Commander Adm. Kim Myong-sik saluting Ju-ae, further fueling speculation about her elevated status.
"When the respected Comrade Kim Jong-un arrived at the Navy Command together with his beloved daughter, the officers and men of the Navy there broke into enthusiastic cheers, full of the emotion and joy of coming to high glory and privilege on its significant foundation day," the KCNA wrote.
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| North Korean Navy Commander Adm. Kim Myong-sik, left, salutes North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's daughter, Ju-ae, during their congratulatory visit to mark the anniversary of the Navy on Aug. 28, in this image captured from the North's Korean Central Television, Aug. 29. Yonhap |
Ju-ae's appearance with her father came more than 100 days after they inspected the North's military satellite launch preparation committee on May 16. This also marked the 15th time Ju-ae appeared next to her father in state media, rekindling speculation about her potential succession. Her first appearance was on Nov. 19, 2022 during a test launch of the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile.
Since then, Ju-ae's presence has been the subject of heated speculation that she is the heir apparent to the Kim regime. South Korean intelligence authorities assume that Kim and his wife, Ri Sol-ju, have three children, with Ju-ae being the second child. She is assumed to have an older brother and the third child's identity has yet to be confirmed.
As Ju-ae continues to show up at key events highlighting the North's military power, which is critical to the regime's stability, some watchers interpret that this signals that the North is putting efforts to justify the girl as the legitimate successor of the regime in her early ages.
However, others say it is too early to assume that the North has nominated the daughter as the successor simply based on some photos and media reports, citing the regime's history of handing down the reins of power to the Kim family's sons.
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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un gestures as he and his daughter, Ju-ae, inspect a test launch of the Hwasong-18 missile on April 13 in this photo released by the North's Korean Central News Agency, April 14. Yonhap |
Building up groundwork
According to Cheong Seong-chang, director of Reunification Strategy Studies at the Sejong Institute, 12 out of Ju-ae's 15 media appearances were at events promoting the North's military power. Two were sports events and one was related to the economy.
In the photos of the Aug. 29 visit to the Navy Command, Ju-ae stands or sits right next to the North Korean leader and listens to briefings North Korea's top military commanders deliver to her father.
"Accompanying his daughter to the events promoting the regime's nuclear and missile ambitions indicates that the leader is raising his daughter as his successor," Cheong said. "The Aug. 29 photos show that Ju-ae is not just accompanying her father at the event but participating it, showing her presence with the top commanders of the North."
Among the North's state-run media coverage of Ju-ae, Cheong also noted a Nov. 27, 2022, Rodong Shinmun article, which described her as a "noble child," and said that the term has been used only for former and current North Korean leaders and the wife of North Korea founder Kim Il-sung. The English version of the same article translated the "noble child" phrase into "beloved daughter."
"Using the expression, which has been reserved only for supreme leaders and Kim Il-sung's wife, implies that Ju-ae will likely become the next leader of North Korea," Cheong said. "In the article, there is also a phrase calling Ju-ae 'the most beloved daughter.' If Kim has multiple children, it is natural that his most beloved one will be the successor," he added.
Cheong said this shows that the North is implying that Ju-ae will be designated as the successor to the regime in the future, given the precedent of the late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, who was nominated as the current leader at an early age.
According to Cheong, Kim Jong-un's maternal aunt, Ko Yong-suk, told him in the United States in March 2021 that Kim Jong-il declared him as his successor during his eighth birthday celebration. However, the North kept this as a secret, so that most experts made the wrong assumption until the early 2000s that Kim Jong-nam, Kim Jong-il's eldest son who was assassinated in 2017, would be the successor.
"Unlike Kim Jong-il, who refrained from making public speeches and wanted to keep his family hidden, Kim Jong-un prefers making public speeches and even revealed his wife soon after he rose to power," Cheong said.
"From Kim Jong-un's perspective, revealing that he already selected Ju-ae as the successor would be more advantageous than concealing it. Based on his past experience, the leader may think that revealing Ju-ae's succession would prevent groundless speculation on who will succeed him."
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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, along with his daughter, Ju-ae, visit the National Aerospace Development Administration in Pyongyang, April 18, in this photo provided by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap |
Not enough evidence
Unlike Cheong, Hong Min, director of the Korea Institute for National Unification, asserts that it is too early to say that the North is preparing Ju-ae as its next leader.
"In her past appearances, especially those related to military events, the common keyword was securing the safety of the future, meaning the North has its strategic weapons so that the U.S. will not interfere and the safety of its future generation is secured," Hong said.
"This can be interpreted as the North using Ju-ae as a symbol of a happy, future North Korean generation, just like other nations' leaders feature children at political events symbolizing the future of their countries."
Hong said the 15 appearances are too random and too small in number to prove that the North has consolidated the daughter as the next leader, while other pieces of evidence and precedents indicate Ju-ae will not likely be the successor.
One of the reasons Hong cited was the presumed existence of Ju-ae's older brother.
South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) chief Kim Kyou-hyun told the National Assembly in March this year, "There is no hard evidence that Kim's first child is a son, but multiple intelligence reports and information shared with foreign intelligence agencies indicate that the first child is a son," according to Rep. Yoo Sang-bum of the ruling People Power Party who received the report.
There are reports and testimonies from the North Korean leader's acquaintances and former North Korean officials that they have only heard of Ju-ae and never heard of Kim's son. But that does not negate the existence of the first son, Hong said.
"If there is a son, it is does not make sense to nominate or designate Ju-ae as the successor, given the Kim family's logic of having its son as the heir," Hong said.
"The North has been enshrining its founder Kim Il-sung's armed anti-Japan movement in the past and has been styling his successors as experienced military commanders. That's why the North is claiming that Jong-un studied artillery skills at Kim Il-sung National Defense University. Given the North's male-dominated society, convincing Ju-ae as a military expert is very unrealistic."
The issue of succession beyond Ju-ae's leadership presents a complex challenge. If North Korea continues to pass on power after Ju-ae, it becomes necessary for her to marry and have a child, who would then carry her husband's surname. Given the North's reverence for the lineage of its leaders, known as the Mount Paektu bloodline, which the regime claims is exclusive to its leaders, having a leader with a different surname creates a paradox.
"If Ju-ae assumes leadership, North Korea would face a formidable and arduous task of reshaping its history to validate her position," said Hong. "The focus on Ju-ae's public appearances should shift towards whether North Korea will develop new technologies or arms programs to ensure its future security."
